改革开放以来，随着我国工业化与城市化进程的持续推进，农村地区普遍出现以“人减地增”为特征的乡村聚落无序扩张与空心化现象，这给当地土地资源的合理利用、生态环境安全、粮食安全等带来了挑战。然而现有的研究多聚焦于乡村聚落的空间格局演化及其驱动机制，对乡村聚落有序退出情景下所引发的碳储量变化仍缺乏深入探讨。黄河三角洲作为我国生态经济与农业发展的战略核心区，近年在环境保护政策、人口变化以及城市演化等多重因素的共同作用下，乡村聚落格局发生了显著变化。鉴于此，本文以黄河三角洲核心区——山东省东营市为研究区，基于多源遥感数据及驱动因子数据，利用InVEST模型分析了1987-2023年乡村聚落变化对区域碳储量的影响，而后又耦合PLUS模型模拟并评估了2040年乡村聚落有序退出情景下区域碳储量的变化特征。研究表明：（1）1987-2023时段，尽管东营市农村在人口不断减少，但乡村聚落面积总体却呈现出增加趋势，累计侵占其他地类面积达223.27 km2，其中以侵占耕地为主导；（2）1987-2023时段，乡村聚落的扩张导致区域碳储量减少0.56×106t，其中侵占耕地所引起的碳储量损失最多，为0.26×106t，占碳储量总损失的46.27%；（3）模拟结果表明，未来情景下乡村聚落有序退出的面积可达106.26km2，可为东营市带来约0.25×106t碳储量的增加，其中以耕地面积增加为主导，将带来0.16×106t碳储量增加，约占乡村聚落有序退出情景下碳储量增量的65.28%。总体而言，乡村聚落的有序退出有助于推动闲置土地向生态用地或耕地转化，从而增强区域碳汇能力，该过程可为黄河三角洲生态环境的保护和粮食安全提供科学支撑。

Since the implementation of China"s reform and opening-up policies, along with the ongoing process of industrialization and urbanization, rural areas have generally witnessed the disorderly expansion and hollowing-out of rural settlements, characterized by a "decreasing population and increasing land" trend. This has posed challenges for the rational utilization of land resources, ecological security, and food security. However, existing studies have mainly focused on the spatial pattern evolution of rural settlements and their driving mechanisms, with insufficient in-depth exploration of the carbon stock changes caused by the orderly withdrawal of rural settlements. The Yellow River Delta, as a strategic core area for ecological economics and agricultural development in China, has undergone significant changes in rural settlement patterns due to the combined effects of environmental protection policies, population changes, and urban evolution in recent years. In response, this study focuses on the core region of the Yellow River Delta—Dongying City, Shandong Province. Using multi-source remote sensing data and driving factor data, the InVEST model is employed to analyze the impact of rural settlement changes on regional carbon stocks from 1987 to 2023. Furthermore, the PLUS model is coupled to simulate and evaluate the carbon stock changes under the scenario of the orderly withdrawal of rural settlements in 2040. The results show that: (1) From 1987 to 2023, despite a decline in the rural population of Dongying City, the area of rural settlements continued to increase, with a total of 223.27 km2 of land being occupied by other land types, predominantly cropland; (2) During the same period, the expansion of rural settlements led to a decrease in regional carbon stocks by 0.56×106 t, with the carbon stock loss caused by the occupation of cropland being the largest (0.26×106 t) accounting for 46.27% of the total carbon stock loss; (3) The simulation results suggest that in the future, the orderly withdrawal of rural settlements could result in an increase of approximately 0.25×106 t of carbon stocks for Dongying City, with cropland expansion playing a dominant role, contributing 0.16×106 t, accounting for 65.28% of the total carbon stock increase under the scenario. Overall, the orderly withdrawal of rural settlements helps promote the conversion of idle land into ecological or cropland, thereby enhancing regional carbon sequestration capacity. This process provides scientific support for the protection of the ecological environment and food security in the Yellow River Delta.