太阳能作为清洁能源,通过减少碳排放,助力实现碳达峰和碳中和目标。光伏电站利用太阳能光辐射发电,是清洁能源的一种重要形式,通过光电转换技术将太阳能转化为电能,实现低碳、无污染的发电过程。将光伏电站纳入土地利用分类有助于全面评估土地资源利用和生态环境影响。然而,现有研究缺少针对光伏电站的长时序土地利用演变研究,且没有基于不同的政策情景对光伏电站建设进行预测。本文基于2000年-2023年间的Landsat5数据和GF2数据对鄂尔多斯市的光伏电站进行目视解译生成土地利用类型图,并在全市范围内分析光伏电站的面积变化、类型转化及空间变化。此外,本文通过绘制高斯投影椭圆,通过投影椭圆的重心演变分析了2000年-2023年间每五年鄂尔多斯市光伏电站的时空变化特征。最终通过PLUS模型分析驱动因素并进行不同政策情景下鄂尔多斯市土地利用类型的未来预测。研究结果表明：2000年-2011年与2011年-2023年相比,鄂尔多斯市土地利用变化的区域空间格局基本一致,但区域变化呈现了新的特征,2011年开始有土地利用类型转变成光伏电站。此外本文基于PLUS模型分析进一步显示人口增长、地表温度、土壤热通量、政策及降水量是造成鄂尔多斯市土地利用变化的主要驱动因素,且对2030年三种政策情景下的土地利用类型进行预测,三种政策情景下鄂尔多斯市建筑、林地、水体、耕地、草地和光伏电站面积均呈现增加的趋势。不同情景下对鄂尔多斯市土地利用类型进行预测为鄂尔多斯市土地规划、资源管理和环境保护提供科学依据。

“Objective” Photovoltaic power stations, which generate electricity using solar radiation, are an important form of clean energy. However, current research generally lacks in-depth investigation into the long-term land use evolution of photovoltaic power stations and has not systematically predicted photovoltaic construction under different policy scenarios. Therefore, it is of significant scientific importance to thoroughly explore the changes in area, type conversion, and spatial distribution characteristics of photovoltaic power stations in Ordos from 2000 to 2023, and on this basis, to predict future land use types under different policy scenarios. “Methodology” To achieve the objectives of this study, we conducted visual interpretation of photovoltaic power stations in Ordos based on Landsat 5 and GF2 data from 2000 to 2023, generating a land use type map. We analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of photovoltaic power stations every five years using Gaussian projection ellipses. Additionally, we employed the PLUS model to analyze driving factors and predict future land use types in Ordos under different policy scenarios. This approach provides scientific basis and decision support for sustainable development and land resource management in Ordos. “Results” The study reveals several key findings: (1) The regional spatial pattern of land use changes in Ordos remained largely consistent between 2000-2011 and 2011-2023, but new characteristics emerged, with some land use types beginning to transition to photovoltaic power stations starting in 2011; (2) Between 2011 and 2023, the spatial distribution of photovoltaic power stations in Ordos gradually shifted from the northwest to the northeast, and the land use types for constructing photovoltaic power stations changed from desert sand to grassland; (3) Analysis using the PLUS model indicates that population growth, surface temperature, soil heat flux, policy, and precipitation are the main driving factors behind land use changes in Ordos; (4) Predictions of land use types for 2030 under three different policy scenarios show that, regardless of the policy scenario, the areas of buildings, forests, water bodies, arable land, grassland, and photovoltaic power stations in Ordos all exhibit increasing trends. These findings provide important insights into the future changes of photovoltaic power stations in Ordos. “Conclusion” This paper delves into the spatiotemporal patterns of photovoltaic power stations in Ordos in recent years, revealing the influence of various factors such as population growth, surface temperature, soil heat flux, policy, and precipitation on the dynamic changes of these stations. It also predicts the land use types for 2030 under three different policy scenarios.