土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)是影响陆地生态系统碳收支平衡的直接驱动因素,其对全球变暖的影响仅次于化石燃料和工业排放。森林是陆地生态系统中最大的碳库,在应对全球气候变化和实现碳中和目标中具有重要的作用。然而,有限的LUCC数据使得LUCC对碳排放的影响大大低估,而缺乏未来气候背景下的LUCC时空数据,也使得揭示森林碳循环对LUCC的响应面临诸多不确定性,如何模拟LUCC,分析LUCC对森林生态系统碳循环的影响是国内外研究的热点。本文系统归纳了国内外LUCC时空模拟方法、森林碳收支估算方法和LUCC对森林碳循环影响研究进展,并列举分析不同LUCC时空模拟、森林碳收支估算模型的优势、适用性、存在的问题。通过文献综述,指出以遥感数据为基础,模拟LUCC并驱动生态系统过程模型,实现森林生态系统碳循环时空精准模拟,是当前今后碳循环研究的发展趋势之一。

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is a direct driver of the carbon balance in terrestrial ecosystems, and its impact on global warming is second only to fossil fuel and industrial emissions. Forest ecosystem is the largest carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems and has an important role to play in addressing global climate change and achieving carbon neutrality targets. However, the limited LUCC data make the impact of LUCC on carbon emissions greatly underestimated, and the lack of spatiotemporal LUCC data in the context of future climate also makes revealing the response of forest carbon cycle to LUCC face many uncertainties. How to simulate LUCC and analyze the impact of LUCC on the carbon cycle of forest ecosystems is a hot topic of research at domestic and international level. This paper systematically summarized the spatiotemporal LUCC simulation methods, forest carbon balance estimation methods and the progress of research on the impact of LUCC on forest carbon cycle, and listed and analyzed the advantages, applicability and problems of different models and methods. Through the literature review, it is pointed out that using remote sensing data as a basis to simulate LUCC and driving ecosystem process models to achieve accurate spatial and temporal simulation of forest ecosystem carbon cycle is one of the current trends and development trends in future carbon cycle research.