在地理信息系统(GIS)及全国农业空间数据库和属性数据库的支持下,在前人关于农业生产潜力研究的基础上进行了全国粮食生产潜力的研究。作者首先论述了粮食生产潜力研究进展,探讨了基于GIS的粮食生产潜力研究方法;然后,就粮食生产潜力的土壤有效系数、土地生产潜力和社会有效系数、社会生产潜力提出了新型的计算模型,并应用机制法通过光、温、水、土、社逐级衰减,具体计算了全国分县粮食生产潜力;最后,将计算结果与现实粮食生产力进行了对比分析,确定了粮食生产潜力开发优势区。

On the basis of previous research results on potential agricultural productivity, the potential grain productivity of China is studied in this paper with the support of geographic information system (GIS) and national agricultural data-base including spatial databases and attribute databases. At frist, the concept and development of potential grain productivity are expounded, and the method of GIS based study on the potential grain productivity is discussed. Then, after stressed research on such factors of potential grain productivity as soil effective coefficient, potential land productivity, social effective coefficient, and potential social productivity, the authors put forward some new computing models. Furthermore, using the mechanism methodology and computing models mentioned above, they calculated computed China's national potential grain productivity by county unit. Finally, the predominance of exploiting potential grain productivity regions of China is determined through comparing the computing results with current grain productivity.