新疆塔里木河流域受人类活动的影响, 特别是由于水资源利用的不合理, 不同区域出现了一系列生态环境问题, 下游地区普遍存在的沙漠化现象表现得尤为突出。通过应用多时相(1959年、1983年、1992年)、多波段、多平台的遥感信息, 在野外调研的基础上编制阿拉干地区不同年代沙漠化类型图, 并在ARC/INFO软件支持下, 对图件进行编辑处理, 制作沙漠化动态图；通过GIS数据库提供的资源环境定量数据, 应用系统论、信息论及控制论的观点分析阿拉干地区沙漠化的演化过程, 并借助于GM(1, 1)模型, 预测阿拉干地区土地沙漠化的发展趋势。

There are a series of ecological environment problems in different areas of the Tarim river basin. Affected by irrational human activities, especially by the irrational use of water resource, desertification generally exsited in the lower reaches of the river. Based on the RS information of multiseason (1959,1983,1992), multiband and multiplatform, depended on the date of GPS positioning, spectral measurment as well as analysis of soil, vegetation and water samples, the desertification maps are produced for different years in Alagan. Moreover, under the support of ARC/INFO software, the dynamic maps of desertification are made. According to the information of GIS DB, system theory, information theory and control theory are used for analysing the processing of desertification in Alagan. At last. based on the model of GM(1,1), the desertification bend in Alagan is predicted.